Electric vehicle ( EV ) sales continue their upward climb, with BloombergNEF projecting 22 million passenger EVs will be sold globally in 2025, a 25% rise from 2024.

Battery electric vehicles dominate these sales, making up around 60% of the total, but plug-in hybrids are gaining ground, particularly in China through range-extended models.

However, the EV growth story is no longer a uniform one, while China remains a juggernaut, emerging markets are catching up faster than expected, often leapfrogging traditional auto markets.

China will contribute 67% of global EV sales in 2025, BloombergNEF notes in its recent Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 APAC, further cementing its leadership in the industry. Europe, meanwhile, will lag with a 17% share, while in the US the outlook has notably dimmed, impacted by regulatory uncertainty, reduced incentives and the ubiquitous tariffs.

Thailand, in contrast, has now surpassed the US in EV adoption, and Brazil has outpaced Japan, in an unexpected reversal of the long-held notion that EVs would thrive first in high-income markets.

China targets emerging economies

This shift has been powered by Chinese automakers aggressively expanding beyond their domestic borders, offering affordable, mass-market EVs. In Brazil and Thailand, Chinese brands now account for up to 90% and 81% of EV sales, respectively.

Their cost advantages, thanks to scale and cheap batteries, mean EVs in China are already cheaper than comparable internal-combustion powered cars, something no other major market can yet claim.

While EVs represented just 42% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2024, that figure is set to climb to 70% by 2040. But growth is slowing: from triple-digit expansion in previous years to just 25% in 2025, with forecasts indicating single-digit annual growth by 2030.

This signals the shift from early adoption to broader market saturation in developed countries, BloombergNEF points out, even as emerging market adoption accelerates.

Developed markets stalling

Many legacy automakers have walked back bold electrification targets set earlier in the decade, with BloombergNEF estimating that global EV sales targets for 2030 from traditional original equipment manufacters are now 5.3 million units lower than in 2023.

As might have been expected, the US has been hit especially hard, anticipated policy rollbacks, tax credit phase-outs and import tariffs are shrinking the forecasted EV adoption rate from 48% to just 27% by 2030.

Charging, infrastructure battleground

Range-extended electric vehicles have taken off in China, growing 83% in 2024, thanks to larger battery packs – 38 kilowatt-hours ( kWh ) on average – and minimal reliance on petrol.

Their success points to a pragmatic bridge for users with range anxiety, particularly outside major cities with sparse charging networks. Similarly, battery costs have dropped 20% in 2024, averaging US$150/kWh globally and below US$100/kWh in China, making affordability a critical enabler of wider EV adoption.

Fast-charging innovation is also now reshaping expectations. BYD has announced its 1,000-kilowatt charging capability, potentially slashing charge times to five minutes. Yet EV charging infrastructure lags, especially in the US, where public chargers are few, underused and expensive compared with gasoline use.

China, however, continues to outpace the world with 850,000 chargers installed last year alone, though even it needs to ramp up to add one million per year to keep pace.

The global EV market is bifurcating. On one side, China and emerging economies are racing ahead with cost-effective EVs and aggressive policy support. On the other, legacy automakers in developed markets are retreating, constrained by political winds and economic headwinds.

Unless these gaps are bridged, through industrial policy, local production or infrastructure investment, the EV future may become even more unevenly distributed.